On January 6, 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign as the leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister. He has been under intense political turmoil with declining popularity over the years and now raises a question as to what will be the future for Canadian governance and its election process.
Trudeau’s resignation and its implications
Trudeau’s resignation also comes at a pivotal moment in Canadian politics since he has been in power since 2015. This announcement came after increasing pressure from within his party and dismal polling numbers ahead of the next federal election, which is mandated to occur by October 20, 2025. Trudeau will continue to hold the reins until a new leader is elected; however, for the Liberal Party, this interim period is very critical as it works through potential opposition from other parties to its rule12.
In Canada’s parliamentary system, that means the Prime Minister is the leader of the party with the most seats. As noted above, the Liberal Party currently has a plurality with 153 of 338 seats in the House of Commons; because this is a minority, though, the government must find support from other parties to pass laws and to maintain the confidence of the House.
The prorogation of parliament
Trudeau has asked the Governor General to prorogue Parliament until March 24, 2025. In effect, prorogation stops all business in Parliament, it puts a freeze on debates, votes, effectively giving his government time to wrangle internal party dynamics without immediate questions from opposition benches. No confidence votes can take place during that period, permitting Trudeau to continue in power with his party choosing a new leader.
This is important because the prorogation defeats any potential confidence motions that could bring about an election before the new leader takes over. The opposition parties had set a date to introduce non-confidence motions on the very day Parliament was to sit again on January 27th but will now have to delay their plans to act on them until at least May.
Election timeframe and scenarios
Timing of the next federal election relies on a couple of things:
- Leadership race: The Liberals will have to choose a new leader before starting their campaigning for the election proper. It does take some number of months, but it would have been fast-tracked because of this.
- Confidence votes: When Parliament resumes, the government will deliver a Speech from the Throne and in April bring forward a federal budget. They could be used as confidence votes; if the government loses any of them, it could precipitate an election before one was actually planned.
- Election date: If all goes by the government’s legislative agenda and no successful confidence votes are waged against the Liberals, Canadians would be expecting to go to the polls in late October 2025. But a united opposition, pushing confidence votes against the government, or an acceleration of internal conflicts within the Liberal Party itself might yet put a potential election much sooner.
The role of the opposition parties
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is doing well in public opinion polls at the moment and will want to exploit Liberal weaknesses. The party, along with the other opposition parties, including the New Democratic Party (NDP), has said it will try to bring down the Trudeau government through motions of no-confidence. How these tactics play out will go a long way toward determining whether Canada is going to be politically placid or roiled in the lead-up to the next election.
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