The United States of America is going to go for a presidential election this coming November 5, 2024. The race is hot between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. With days left for voters to go to the polls, understanding polling data and insights from surveys shall provide insight into what can be expected from such a competitive election.
Current polling landscape
Recent polls have them neck and neck. In the Financial Times poll, Trump has taken a slight lead over Harris on economic trust, 44 percent of those polled going for Trump versus 43 percent for Harris. However, Harris is now leading by roughly three to four percentage points in national polling averages. This would tend to indicate that while voters might remain more optimistic about the economy under Trump’s presidency, Harris still enjoys a slight lead over Trump in terms of popularity.
In support are polling data showing both candidates performing well in their respective strongholds but facing difficulties in key battleground states. While Harris is leading in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump is leading in states such as North Carolina and Georgia. Reports even say she has a three to four point lead over him as discussed here, Who will win the US election? This is what the latest polls say between Trump vs Harris with one week to go before November… . It is in these swing states that the dynamics are so crucial, for they will finally determine the election outcome through the Electoral College.
Key swing states
Its fate is left with a number of key swing states, such as:
- Michigan: Traditionally a Democratic-leaning state, Harris has held a small lead here.
- Wisconsin: Similar to Michigan, Harris leads by a hair, though the race is tightening.
- Georgia: Trump has recently regained a slight lead after his support fluctuated wildly.
- Arizona: This state shows competitive advantage for Trump, leading by about two per cent.
- Pennsylvania: A very crucial state where Harris has trailed narrowly against Trump.
Combined they hold 93 Electoral College votes, and either candidate’s path to victory requires them.
Voter issues and candidate messaging
The candidates certainly paint very different visions for America and create a dynamic that heavily affects voter sentiment.
Kamala Harris focuses on tax cuts for the middle class, action on climate, and restoration of abortion rights. Her main concentration has been on health reforms and strategies of economic growth that are to cut down the rise in living costs. Recent rallies at high-profile endorsements with celebrities such as Bruce Springsteen boosted her visibility and appeal to the younger voters.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has continued to preach tax cuts and strict immigration control from his earlier tenure. He has also become more provocative, positioning himself as the protector against what he calls “radical” policies proposed by the Biden Administration. For Trump, a focus on economic recovery plays to those concerned about inflation and the availability of jobs.
Both candidates are taking their platforms to major voter concerns, such as inflation, access to healthcare, and immigration policy. In a final push before the election, it very likely may be messaging that plays a crucial role in undecided voters.
Polling reliability and predictions
While current polling indeed shows the voters’ preference, it would be very prudent to take these numbers with a grain of salt. Past elections have shown several instances of consistent polling underestimating support for Trump. This indicates that the shifts in voter sentiment, as Election Day approaches, might come into place pretty fast.
