The United States is experiencing a significant surge in bird flu cases, impacting various animal species, including dairy cows, wild birds, poultry, and even household pets. The outbreak, primarily driven by the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, has led to drastic measures to contain its spread. Since 2022, over 150 million poultry birds have been culled across all 50 states in an effort to control the virus. While these actions are crucial for disease prevention, they have resulted in a sharp decline in egg production, leaving grocery store shelves bare where cartons of eggs once sat.
The crisis has intensified in recent months, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reporting a steady increase in the number of affected birds. In November, 7 million birds were impacted, followed by 18 million in December and 23 million in January. In the past 30 days alone, 125 flocks have tested positive for bird flu, with 81 of these cases occurring on commercial farms and 44 affecting backyard flocks. The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service states that once a bird is infected, the only effective way to prevent further spread is to cull the entire flock, directly influencing egg supply and pricing.
Why egg prices are rising
With flocks being depopulated at an alarming rate, egg production has suffered a major setback. According to David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, rebuilding egg-laying flocks takes time. “Whenever you have a detection, you have to depopulate birds within a given area, and it takes a significant amount of time to rebuild that flock and for those layers to become productive again,” Ortega explained.
Ortega also pointed out that demand for eggs remains high, with very few substitutes available, which contributes to price increases. While he does not believe the country is facing an outright egg shortage, he acknowledged that regional stockouts could occur. “It’s not that we have run out of eggs. It’s just that, because of the impacts that bird flu has on the industry and the structure of supply chains, some regions may experience temporary shortages,” Ortega said.
Consumers have already begun to feel the effects of the crisis, with businesses adjusting their pricing. Waffle House, a popular restaurant chain with over 2,000 locations, recently implemented a 50-cent surcharge per egg due to skyrocketing prices. The USDA has warned that egg prices could rise by as much as 20% in the coming weeks as more farms test positive for bird flu.
Egg theft and consumer concerns
The soaring cost of eggs has led to unexpected consequences, including theft. In Antrim Township, Pennsylvania, approximately 100,000 eggs were stolen from the back of a trailer over the past weekend. The stolen eggs had an estimated retail value of $40,000, highlighting the growing financial burden on consumers and businesses alike.
Ortega predicts that prices will remain high until the bird flu outbreak slows down. “For the market to stabilize, we need a sustained period of several months without major bird flu cases affecting commercial operations,” he stated. He estimates that it could take four to six months of reduced outbreaks before egg prices begin to decrease significantly.
The emerging risk to humans
In addition to its impact on the poultry industry, bird flu is also raising concerns about human health. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed 67 human cases of bird flu across 10 states since April 2024. Most cases have been mild, with patients fully recovering, but there has been one reported death in Louisiana. The deceased, a man over 65 with underlying health conditions, had contracted the D1.1 strain of bird flu, the same variant recently detected in dairy cattle in Nevada.
Public health officials emphasize that the risk of human-to-human transmission remains low. The USDA, which launched a national milk testing program in December, detected this strain in cattle, marking the first time it has been found in this species. Although no immediate threat to public health has been identified, officials are monitoring the situation closely.
As the bird flu outbreak continues to evolve, consumers are left grappling with higher prices, limited availability, and concerns over potential health risks. For now, experts urge vigilance and patience as the industry works to recover from this unprecedented crisis.
