The looming specter of World War III has captured significant attention in discussions of escalating tensions within the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran. As military confrontations between them escalate, much of the world looks on with curiosity about which countries would line up with either side if a broader conflict were to begin. The following article examines the geopolitical landscape after a look at which possible allies may be brought into such a conflict.
The current landscape of tensions
The spate of military confrontations between Israel and Iranian proxy forces has increasingly engendered unease over the possibility of an all-engulfing war. The Israeli attack against Hezbollah, with the additional retaliatory strikes against Iranian positions, has heightened the state of violence and created an in-escalating sense that any one miscalculation may rise to an all-out war. This is further compounded by the fact that Iran has supported various militant groups throughout the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both part and parcel of its strategy against Israel.
Thus, Iran finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It has to retaliate against Israeli provocations in order to retain some credibility before its proxies without falling into an act that may automatically engage it in direct conflict with the United States or any other ally. This is a very tenuous balance that shows just how regional escalation-and, by extension, global power involvement-can go through the roof.
Countries that are likely to support Israel
If this war were ever to take place, there may be countries that support Israel, especially because of strategic interests and alliances in place, which include the following:
- United States: The most important ally of Israel, conventionally has supported the country with military and diplomatic aid. The Biden administration reiterated commitments toward Israel’s position of self-defense against Iranian proxies.
- European Union of Nations: Countries like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have shown support for Israel in solidarity against attacks by Hamas and other militant groups. Hence, they may express political support to Israel and, where necessary, military if need be.
- The Gulf Arab States: Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have just signed the Abraham Accords, normalizing their relations with Israel. Traditionally opposed to the state of Israel over questions of Palestine, these states might balance against their common threat from Iranian influence by indirectly supporting Israel.
- Australia and Canada: These two countries have always supported Israel in international forums and would go along with policies taken by the U.S. when it came to military aid or diplomatic support.
Nations which will support Iran
On the opposite side of the fence, several countries may stand with Iran when conflict arises:
- Russia: Traditional friend of Iran, Russia has strategic interests in countering U.S. influence in the region. The Kremlin has provided military support to Iran and may support Iran against Israel if their mutual interests are served.
- China: Historically, China has been less involved in Middle Eastern conflicts. However, these days, China has strengthened ties with Iran through economic agreements. Thus, it may support Tehran diplomatically or economically if its vital interests are being affected by the U.S. actions.
- Turkey: Under the leadership of President Erdoğan, Turkey has posed itself as a supporter of Palestinian rights and an outspoken critic of Israeli actions. Relations with both Iran and Israel are complex, but in case of some extraordinary aggravation, the tensions might be prone to take the side of Iran for support.
- Hezbollah, Iran and other proxies: Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon are directly supported by Iran and would most probably enter military activity on behalf of Tehran in case of conflict. Further, other Iranian proxies across the region – such as Hamas in Gaza and various militias in Iraq – would leap into action against Israeli forces.
The risk of global conflict
Though many analysts conclude that World War III remains improbable, since the consequences of such a war would be absolutely disastrous for all parties concerned, the possibility of regional escalation is great. The involvement of major powers like the U.S., Russia, and China further complicates the issue, with each nation having vested interests that may draw them into direct confrontation, depending on how events could unfold.
With interdependent world politics, a critical conflict within the Middle East could have wide and unknown ramifications outside of regional borders. In an era of continued escalation in military engagements between Israeli and Iranian forces, vigilance by international actors in preventing a wider war will be crucial.
