With federal funding set to lapse at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, December 21, the United States faces the possibility of a government shutdown just days before the holidays. As Congress scrambles to pass a spending bill, questions loom over the impact on federal services and payments.
Why is a shutdown possible?
It was indeed a controversy regarding a proposed spending bill that threw punches at a potential shutdown in the future. The spending bill would have extended funding until March 14, 2024, for all but one of the 12 appropriation bills, but it was yanked over opposition from some Republicans, including President-elect Donald Trump, by House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Critics—again billionaire Elon Musk himself, who spent almost $300 million backing Trump and other Republican candidates in the November election—said, among other things, that the bill has much to spend on. Musk called the bill “terrible” and cheered over its dismissal on social network X by saying, “The voice of the people has triumphed!” In retaliation, House Republicans proposed an alternate funding measure for the government into spring. There could be a vote Thursday evening under that legislation, which would likely allow avoiding shutting down the government.
What happens during a government shutdown?
If Congress fails to pass a spending bill, federal agencies will be unable to spend money, except for essential services like law enforcement and protecting property. Agencies must decide which workers will continue to work, leading to disruptions in many areas.
According to David Wessel, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a shutdown could delay applications for passports, small business loans, and government benefits. While essential services would persist, furloughs would leave many government workers temporarily unpaid.
Impact on government workers
Those crucial personnel, including air traffic controllers and law enforcement agents, will continue to work through the shutdown, but their paychecks will not be issued until funding is approved.
Furloughed employees or unpaid ones often suffer the strains of finances. Just behind the earlier shutdown lasting more than 30 days in late 2018, a large number of workers were running to food pantries just to survive months later. Yet, these workers will be getting retroactive pay once the shutdown ends.
Social Security and medicare: Will they be affected?
Checks will continue for the 67 million periodic Social Security payees across the country even if there is a government shutdown. The same goes for Medicare: the program will still continue moving along, making sure seniors still have access to medications and treatments.
However, it is likely that all such activities subsidiary to the Social Security Administration (SSA), such as benefit verification and processing of new applications, will be put on hold. These activities rely on discretionary funding approved annually by Congress.
Air travel and TSA operations
Shutdowns forecast bumpy holiday traveling over such times. However, essential workers such as air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents would continue to work without pay.
The agency anticipates screening around 40 million holiday travelers but warns of some delays if the shutdown happens to be prolonged. A very long shutdown would reduce the capacity of agents to do their best but is likely to lead to longer waits at the terminals.
Will mail services continue?
Yes, mail delivery will remain unaffected. The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) operates as an independent agency and is not reliant on congressional funding. Post offices will stay open, and deliveries will proceed as usual.
Military and defense department employees
Active duty military members and federal law enforcement agents must continue doing their jobs, although pay does not become available until funding reopens. Civilian workers at the Department of Defense will probably have furloughs because of the shutdown. The earliest impacted paychecks will probably restrict payments for military forces until they receive their first paycheck in 2025, which is set to include a 4.5% pay increase. Notices regarding the protocols to be followed during the shutdown have already been sent to the affected employees.
Other services that may be affected
Many government services could pause during a shutdown, including:
- Environmental and food inspections by the EPA and FDA.
- Operations at national parks and the National Institutes of Health.
- IRS services, though tax filing season typically begins in late January.
How long could a shutdown last?
They state that the odds are in favor that a closure may very well happen, but analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that the closure wouldn’t last for a very long time. Changes to the spending bill may also avoid a funding lapse if Republicans can find a way to manage Trump’s complaints concerning some expenditures.
