An invitation by President-elect Donald Trump to Chinese President Xi Jinping to join him at his inauguration on January 20, 2025, has triggered off much discussion. But for all practical purposes, it is already a foregone conclusion that he will have to decline the invitation. Tied up in diplomatic protocol, the state of US-China relations today, and Xi’s own political considerations, a set of factors creates this most probable scenario.
Historical background of diplomatic representation
No head of state from China has ever attended the inauguration of an American president. This is not a matter of tradition but a reflection of the complex and mostly tense relations that have existed between the two nations, with the U.S.-China relationship is characterized by competition and conflict, especially in recent years.
The invitation per se, which was conveyed outside formal diplomatic channels, has raised eyebrows in Beijing, where officials are acutely aware of the implications of such gestures in international relations.
Risk perception and diplomatic protocol
Analysts said that attending the Trump inauguration would be a gamble by Xi Jinping as the geopolitical relations between the two nations have just reached an all-time low after Trump repeatedly proclaimed a set of hostile comments and warnings threatening to impose tariffs and trade policies against China. Analysts explained that all for these reasons, Xi would not go to attend the event only to be a witness for the coronation of a foreigner considering the rigid political ambiance in Washington.
This view is resonated by Danny Russel, who was the assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, through his statement that sent a question of if Xi could be comfortable sitting amidst the assertive U.S. legislators as Trump delivers his inaugural speech. It will also make Xi appear less of his stature on the international stage. Added to Xi’s cautiousness is that no established etiquette exists for Chinese leaders attending U.S. inaugurations.
Current state of U.S.-China relations
In fact, however, the US-China relationship has grown increasingly adversarial, from trade wars to military flashpoints in the South China Sea to ideological clashes about issues of governance and human rights. Former President Donald Trump pursued hardline policies against China, including tariffs that seriously hit Chinese exports to the US as also detailed with this article, Trump threatens to impose sweeping new tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China – These are the items that will suffer the most when he takes office in January 2025
With these in mind, one probable reason for this is because of apprehensions that any perceived concession or engagement might get seized upon as a sign of weakness or acquiescence in an undesirable status quo besides that, in case Trump were to move swiftly within weeks of the inauguration and impose punitive measures against China, attendance of the inauguration would leave Xi politically foolish.
Domestic considerations for China’s president
Internal politics in China also explains Xi’s actions. To be sure, nothing can be done or exposed that would jeopardize this strong leadership style or domestic narrative. All international appearances by the Chinese government, for instance, are carefully choreographed to project power outward as a function of domestic interests, which means any appearance at Trump’s inauguration has to be measured against possible consequences at home.
Furthermore, with rising nationalism within China and growing scrutiny of foreign relations, from both the government and public opinion, Xi’s visit would attract strong backlash as an act of succumbing to demands or pressures from the United States.
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