The Democratic Party is undergoing significant change, as President Joe Biden recently announced he will not run for re-election in 2024. That cleared the path for a new candidate who would become the party’s nominee, and the shift of that is deep. With Vice President Kamala Harris positioned as the presumptive successor, the Democratic National Committee is ready to host a contentious nomination battle that may very well set a course for a new direction of the party.
Biden withdrawal and endorsement of Kamala Harris
The decision of President Biden to opt out of the presidential race elicited mixed responses within the party. But his declaration in favor of his would-be successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, is significant, as that makes her the front-runner to take over the mantle. The endorsement does not assure her of a nomination. Harris is still off the radar in many polls and so far has refused to confirm her interest in contesting the election due in 2024, which further muddles her route to the nomination.
According to polling data, much of Harris’s support among Democrats seems firm, but she holds less-spectacular favorability ratings, especially in the swing states. All these factors are going to hurt her chances of pulling the party behind her and gaining favor more broadly with voters as the election draws near. The DNC will hold its national convention on August 19, where delegates debate and vote on the party’s nominee—so it’s crunch time for the Democratic Party.
The Road to the Nomination
It’s a convoluted, completely unprecedented process for selecting Biden’s replacement. According to DNC rules, Biden will first have to formally release his delegates, who are pledged to him, so that they can vote for another candidate. That means any potential nominees would have to collect signatures to prove their viability. Its rules also provide for the possibility of revising nomination procedures midstream, which could mean a more fluid and dynamic choice process.
Already doing a bit of positioning, though Harris has Biden’s open endorsement, are people like California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker. What each of these possible candidates brings to the table in terms of strengths and weaknesses will be important in their ability to galvanize support leading into the convention.
Potential contenders for the nomination
- Kamala Harris (Vice President): As the sitting vice president, Harris holds real advantages: familiarity with the voters and relationships in the party. But her polling numbers and previous struggles to connect with voters may stand in her way.
- Gavin Newsom (Governor of California): Newsom has built a national profile and been vocal on a wide variety of issues, painting him as one of the party’s leaders. His record in such a liberal state could also be a liability when trying to court some of the more moderate voters.
- Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan: Whitmer’s victory in one of the most important swing states, and a prominent stand in the area of reproductive rights, boost her status within the party. Her ability to connect with voters in battleground states could make her a strong contender.
- J.B. Pritzker, Illinois Governor: His billions and commitment to progressive causes make Pritzker a real candidate. However, his far-left positions will not help him with many voters elsewhere in the country.
- Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor): His recent electoral victory and concentration on issues such as gun violence make Shapiro an extremely fine choice for the nomination. He has a probable appeal to the middle in swing states.
- Wes Moore (Maryland Governor): The youngest Democratic governor, Wes Moore has turned heads with his command and crisis management acumen. He holds an emerging profile that might win him sympathy among young voters.
Implications for the Democratic Party
The upcoming DNC convention will be such a defining moment in history that the Democratic Party must unite behind the new candidate who can garner the credibility and strength to take on the Republican nominee, arguably Donald Trump. There have to be ways of addressing the internal chasms and questions of electability, primarily harnessed among young voters who were at one time reported to be angry about Biden’s leadership.
The dilemma of the Democratic Party
Having so many different factions in its base to juggle, all while trying to appeal to a broader electorate as the nomination process unfolds. This will, in large part, shape the outcome for both the convention and the choice of nominee—therefore, strategy and prospects of the party heading into 2024.
In sum, the withdrawal of President Biden places the Democratic Party at a juncture. Replacing him would be based on ground readouts of the respective positions of the party and opinion polls, coupled with events that could unify the party before an election. As potential candidates jostle out, focus will be on who best to represent the party ideals and connect with the electorate in a very important election year.
