With the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season well underway, one thing is for certain: is speculation as to what future storms may pop up. Although the technical bounds of the season are June 1 to November 30, forecasters are keeping a watchful eye on several developing systems that could impact the United States over the next several weeks.
Current status of hurricane season
Copious activity has already characterized the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season: 13 named storms and 9 hurricanes so far, four of those classified as major hurricanes. The last one, Hurricane Milton, brought much destruction and loss of life while it swept through Florida. For the time being, there are a number of systems that meteorologists are keeping a watchful eye on for possible development into a named storm or hurricane in the near future.
Coming storms ahead
Forecasters now monitor several systems in the Atlantic:
- Tropical Storm Nadine: A developing system east of Florida is forecasted to form into Tropical Storm Nadine. However, upper-level winds likely will cut its growth, limiting its potential impact.
- Hurricane Leslie: Currently churning over the open Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie maintains winds near 80 mph and is expected to weaken slowly. Although currently the storm has no implications whatsoever for any landmass, it proves that waters of the Atlantic remain very active.
- Invest 91L: A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is being monitored for potential development. Conditions in the environment are only marginally favorable for this system to strengthen as it moves west.
Meteorologists say that, other than Nadine, which is not likely to be much of a factor, there are other systems, like Invest 91L that have better prospects of developing into named storms over the next several days.
Understanding hurricane forecasts
These predictions of hurricane activities this season are based on a number of climatic factors. One important factor has been the transitioning from El Niño to La Niña conditions, which have been affecting storm formation. La Niña offers weaker-than-normal trade winds and lower wind shear, thus giving a more favorable environment for the development of tropical cyclones.
NOAA had forecasted an above-normal hurricane season with estimates of 17 to 25 named storms and 8 to 13 hurricanes, some reaching major status. This outlook is consistent with ongoing warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and other atmospheric conditions.
Historical context and timing
Traditionally, October is a month of high hurricane activity. In fact, the combined months of October and November retire more storm names than do the combined months from June through August. That trend underlines how important it is that we remain vigilant as we approach the latter part of the hurricane season.
The peak period, between late August and early October, commonly experiences hurricane activity at its zenith; however, it is not unusual for important storms to develop later in the season. Over the next several weeks will be particularly critical regarding any potential threat monitoring.
Preparedness and community impact
Following recent storms like Hurricane Milton, preparedness is paramount for the communities. People living along the Eastern Seaboard should continue to be vigilant regarding potential storm developments. Local emergency management agencies recommend that:
- Being current with the latest weather forecast from a trusted source.
- Preparation of disaster supplies. Having a family communication plan.
- Obeying local evacuation instructions, if issued.
The impacts of hurricanes can be devastating, and people other than those who are in the direct path are usually affected through flooding and power outages.
