The 2024 US presidential race has been marked by close polling and intense campaigning across traditional battleground states. The main candidates, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump, are neck-and-neck in various regions, with battleground states poised to play a decisive role in determining the winner.
Current polling landscape
The most recent data from national and state polls indicate a highly competitive race. A Race to the WH polling average, which assesses the Harris-Trump matchup across each state, reveals that battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin are likely to be the primary determinants of the electoral outcome. These states, each with important electoral votes, continue to show fluctuating leads for both Harris and Trump. Given the polling margins, no clear frontrunner has emerged, suggesting a repeat of the high-stakes, swing-state battles seen in previous elections.
Political analysts emphasize that the Electoral College could be the deciding factor, rather than the national popular vote. While national polls may show close percentages, the distribution of votes in these key states is expected to be pivotal, especially as they could shift between Democratic and Republican control depending on last-minute voter turnout and mobilization efforts.
Electoral map: Historical blue and red states since 2000
For over two decades, the U.S. electoral map has shown consistent patterns in certain states leaning toward either the Democratic (blue) and Republican (red). This “predictable” map was especially apparent leading up to the 2016 election when only ten states were considered toss-ups. This was due to several states forming a near “blue wall” for the Democrats and a steady base for the Republicans, making it challenging for either party to break into each other’s established territories.
Democratic strongholds:
States such as California, New York, and Illinois have traditionally leaned Democratic since 1992, contributing reliably to the party’s electoral count. These blue-leaning states account for around 195 electoral votes, forming a baseline for the Democratic candidate.
Republican strongholds
Republican-leaning states such as Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee have also consistently voted for the GOP. These states, along with others in the South and Midwest, provide the Republicans with a foundational 152 electoral votes. With Texas’s sizable 38 electoral votes, this base is critical for Trump’s campaign.
Changes in key battleground states
Recent election cycles have disrupted some of these historical patterns. In 2016, Trump managed to penetrate the “blue wall” by winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that had previously been Democratic strongholds. This shift marked a significant departure from historical trends and underscored the potential for volatility in these swing states.
In 2020, Joe Biden reversed some of Trump’s gains, securing victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as flipping Arizona and Georgia—two states that had not voted Democratic in decades. The 2024 election is therefore being closely monitored to see if these states will continue their shift or revert to their prior leanings.
The swing states to watch
- Pennsylvania: Holding 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania has swung between parties in recent cycles, with Biden narrowly winning it in 2020.
- Arizona and Georgia: Biden’s victory in both states in 2020 marked a major shift. Arizona’s 11 electoral votes and Georgia’s 16 votes are highly sought after by both campaigns.
- Michigan and Wisconsin: Each with a history of Democratic leanings, these states swung to Trump in 2016 before returning to Biden in 2020. Michigan has 15 electoral votes, and Wisconsin has 10.
