The first presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump has shifted the polls to Trump’s side. After what was seen as a disastrous performance by current President Joe Biden in the presidential debate held on June 27, 2024 the encounter appears to have tipped the scale in favor of former president Donald Trump. Below is a detailed breakdown of the polls:
Trump takes the lead
The first presidential debate has given Donald Trump a 3-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally.
Motivation over persuasion
A big factor in the shift in polls is motivation, not just persuasion, with Democrats not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote.
Electoral college advantage
The preference contest implies an Electoral College advantage for Trump, with Republicans more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely turn out in 2024.
Read more: What is the Electoral College
Biden’s age a Factor
For many voters, both candidates’ ages are a factor, not just Mr. Biden’s. Though 80 percent of voters thinking Biden is too old to run.
Independents tightly contested
Independents remain tightly contested, with Trump narrowly edging up with them.
Democrats’ turnout in question
Democrats are not as likely as Republicans to say they will “definitely” vote, with half of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters not thinking he should be running this year.
Debate performance
Biden’s debate performance has led to significant debate among his supporters over whether he should step down as the Democratic nominee, with only 51% of Democrats and 35% of all likely voters saying that Joe Biden should remain as the Democratic nominee.
Alternative candidates
Many potential alternative Democratic candidates are still unknown by a majority of voters, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Head-to-Head matchup
In a two-way matchup between Biden and Trump, 45% of voters choose Biden and 48% of voters choose Trump, with no alternative candidate performing significantly better than Biden against Trump.
Polls show Trump leading
A Data for Progress flash poll found that voters believed Trump performed better than Biden in the debate. Trump now has a 3-point edge over President Biden across the battleground states and a 2-point edge nationally. A Wall Street Journal poll found that Trump leads Biden 48% to 45% among registered voters.
