The United States is gearing up toward the most awaited election day on November 5, 2024. In the last few days, this race has gone even tenser between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The latest polls done by various groups try making sense of the respective positions of the candidates. As the elections near, with about a week to go, both opponents take one last stride towards trying to capture the heart and mind of undecided voters in an almost fiercely fought political battleground.
Summary of current polling
Recent polling is sending mixed signals on whether this can prove to be a relatively close or pretty largely one-sided race between Trump and Harris. In fact, recent averages put Harris at a three to four percentage point national advantage over Trump. They are at 48 percent apiece according to the New York Times/Siena College poll, “painting a picture of a hyper-competitive environment in which both candidates are fighting for the key pieces of ground that might determine the outcome”.
Harris’s campaign didn’t really take off until she got the endorsement from President Joe Biden himself after he pulled out in July. Since then, she has held a small lead in national polls, with the numbers having stabilized since early September. That steadiness would indicate both candidates have consolidated their support, and significant shifts will be less likely in the final stretch of the campaign.
Key battleground states
But while a national poll might give a general sense of the way voters might be feeling, it in no way reflected the complexity brought about with the Electoral College system. The election is expected to be decided in so-called swing states-regions where both candidates have a plausible chance of winning. Polling in the key battleground states currently reflects a more mixed picture:
- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: These all were longtime Democratic strongholds that flipped to Trump in 2016 but went back to Biden in 2020. Harris has been leading in each, but over the last several days, the margins have significantly tightened; surveys suggest she leads by one to three points.
- Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina: which are the ones whose active support seesawed between the two candidates. Recent trends have it that Trump regained slight momentum in Arizona and North Carolina, while Georgia is highly competitive; no one can confidently declare the winner.
- Florida and Texas: Both of these states were considered Democratic battlegrounds, but both have had significant surges for Trump. He leads Harris in Florida by 13 points, and in Texas by six, which could be an indicator of voter demographic and preference shifts in the state.
Voter turnout
One critical factor may be voter turnout. Both campaigns are trying to get their bases out while attempting to appeal to the undecided voters. Early voting data indicates turnout in demographic groups could be key-young voters and minorities coming out in bigger numbers would favor Harris, while strong turnout among rural and white working-class voters would favor Trump.
Many pollsters still recall the miscalculations in prior estimates of Trump support during both the 2016 and 2020 elections when polls underestimated his support and led to election night surprises. This time, a spate of new methodologies is in place to better capture voter sentiment and demographic changes.
