Stocks of Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk declined on Monday, March 10, 2025, after it published the results of clinical trials for its new weight-loss drug, CagriSema. The shares declined by about 9% in midday trading as investors were concerned about the effectiveness of the drug compared to drugs that are available today.
The Redefine 2 late-phase trial tested a combination of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy active pharmaceutical ingredient semaglutide GLP-1 agonist and man-made amylin hormone cagrilintide, CagriSema, in 1,206 patients with type 2 diabetes who were overweight or obese. Patients receiving the highest dose of CagriSema lost 15.7% of their body weight on average over 68 weeks, while those receiving the placebo lost 3.1%.
These results were below internal and market expectations. Novo Nordisk had anticipated weight loss in this patient group of approximately 25%, in line with the outcomes of other clinical trials.
In a December trial in overweight or obese patients with no type 2 diabetes, CagriSema led to a mean weight reduction of 22.7%. The lesser success in the current trial has caused investors and analysts to fret about the competition for the drug.
Market reaction and competitive landscape
The share market responded swiftly to the news of the trials, with Novo Nordisk stocks falling by 9.4% on Monday.
The reduction is largely attributed to comparison with the weight-loss medication of Eli Lilly, Zepbound. Zepbound reduced body weight by 20.9% at 72 weeks in phase 3 trials, more than the reduction in weight on CagriSema in the recent trial.
The battle between Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is on as they try to capture the majority of the lucrative weight-loss medicine market. Eli Lilly’s Zepbound has proved more effective in recent research than Novo Nordisk products, positioning itself on the positive side. All that competition has caused investors to speculate on Novo Nordisk’s future market share and, moreover, raised its growth rate of revenue.
Company response and future plans
In spite of the disappointment, Novo Nordisk is keen to take CagriSema through the regulatory approval process. The company is set to present the full results of the Redefine 1 and Redefine 2 trials at a scientific conference later in 2025 and will seek the first regulatory approval of CagriSema in the first quarter of 2026.
Martin Holst Lange, senior Vice President at Novo Nordisk, was hopeful about the trial outcome and stated, “The Redefine 2 results confirmed the greater efficacy of CagriSema in overweight or obese and type 2 diabetes patients. We look forward to submitting this second pivotal trial to regulatory authorities with a hope of bringing this next-generation therapy to the millions of waiting patients.”
Implication on Novo Nordisk product portfolio
The product portfolio for Novo Nordisk currently comprises Ozempic, which the FDA approved as a diabetes drug, and Wegovy, which was FDA-approved for dealing with chronic weight. The active ingredient for both medications is semaglutide. The development of CagriSema represents progress in better treatment through a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide. The new trial results indicate that the performance of CagriSema will not vary significantly from those of the existing treatments on the market, and the company’s advantage within the marketplace could, therefore, be diminished.
Investor sentiment and strategic relevance
Investors have been forced to reevaluate the possible growth of Novo Nordisk within the market for weight-loss drugs on the heels of the latest trial figures. The decline in the share price of the company shows concern that CagriSema is not strong enough to compete with its rivals, particularly Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. With the weight-reducing drug market expanding further, Novo Nordisk may be forced to look at other ways to expand its base of shares, such as spending more money on research and development or making strategic partnerships to broaden the company’s product range.
